Like, we’re destroying the one place we know is a sure bet on where we can prosper if we keep it healthy, but instead the world’s richest man is trying to expand to other planets while this one’s ability to sustain life is in jeopardy. IMO that makes us potentially a very stupid species compared to a species that doesn’t really care about meeting other aliens because they value the life on their own planet far more than we do.
We should die out on this planet.
There is a handful of people with the money to get to Mars who can go die somewhere else
A Great Filter needs to explain why we don’t hear radio transmissions from alien civilisations.
space big explains it pretty clearly tbh
Unlikely.
We are eventually going to hit a real limit on the number of humans this planet can support. Whether or not we’ll get there, that’s not really in question. When we’ll reach that point, that’s harder to say, could be 5000 years, but I’d bet it’s closer to 500. At some point, relatively soon, we are going to need to start expanding into near space, the moon, earth orbit.
It would be the same for any intelligent species. They start their existence in relative equilibrium, until they start outperforming other species, they shape the world to fit their needs, they invent machines, medicine, and then they are no longer in equilibrium, their numbers are steadily increasing. Any intelligent species will eventually be more successful than their planet can support.
But if a star system were surrounded by a Dyson Swarm, millions or even billions of free floating habitats and space stations orbiting the star, that’s actually something we could detect. We know that isn’t happening all over the galaxy, because we actually probably wouldn’t miss that.
maybe the real treasures are the natural resources we destroy along the way!
Quite a few assumptions being made and quite a lot of hyperbole.
- The richest man in the world is not representative of the human race. Also, settling Mars (within timelines that musk is suggesting) is not treated seriously by any institution with significant power.
- We aren’t putting earth’s ability to host life in jeopardy. Not even close. Yes, human caused climate change is bad. Worst case outcomes lead to most human settlements going under water and extinctions in a manner that the planet has seen only a few times. But again, not even close where we need to abandon earth cuz we “ruined it” or whatever. Not even nuclear war would lead humanity to come to this conclusion.
As for why a civilization should be interested in spreading out as much as possible in case it wants to survive:
- spreading out reduces the probability of extinction. Right now, one gamma ray burst that’s close enough, and that is aimed at earth can render the entirety of humanity extinct. But if we were more spread out, not all humans would have to die. The same logic can be applied to relativistic weapons aimed at earth.
- spreading out gives us access to a lot of resources. Earth’s gravity and atmosphere makes it hard to manufacture and launch megastructures. Megastructures can allow us to create really cool stuff.
- many humans find exploring the universe really cool!
If alien species are anything like us, I highly doubt that they’d come to the conclusion that you’ve posited.
I can point to examples of many civilizational collapses based on comparatively minor climate abnormalities in the last mere 7,000 years, and can say with certainty the earth has gone at least 5,000,000,000 without being bombarded by even one gamma ray burst.
I think any alien civilization with basic math would prioritize the bird-in-hand.
You can point to those civilizations because their collapse was not the end, life continued on. We haven’t been hit by a gamma ray burst or any other complex life ending disaster since we are here to discuss the scenario. But that’s no guarantee that we won’t be.
The odds of anything happening to render Earth totally uninhabitable are very small… in our lifetimes. But as long as we keep existing, the time frame will keep growing, the opportunities for disaster will keep accumulating and the odds will keep multiplying. The basic math looks very different when you multiply by infinity. Even the sun won’t last forever.
Obviously, this is no reason to neglect Earth and rush to other planets. But it is reason enough to reject the idea that we should never spread to other worlds because Earth will always be enough.
Civilization collapsing doesn’t equal to species end. A gamma ray burst or yeah something that has already happened in the planets past, a big enough asteroid hitting us. Can mean the end of the species.
Of course civilizations collapse should be avoided even just for the reason of avoiding lots of people dying. We shouldn’t completely discard expanding into space either. Our population and civilization is big enough that both things can be done at the same time.
Working towards both will probably provide a better overall goal for common people as well instead of currently working just to line the pockets of CEOs and pedofiles.
without being bombarded by even one gamma ray burst.
you wouldn’t know that. deep-sea life would probably survive any gamma ray burst, i guess.
and it turns out, there’s a surprising amount of deep-sea life: bacteria and complex life.
on this diagram, it would throw us back by 300 mio. years max.
Other positive things to mention about space exploration:
- If humanity spreads out across the stars, there is less of a danger for us dying from ANY centralized disaster including the cosmic ones and those we might cause ourselves
- Similar to the above, it will be harder to create centralized governments due to extreme distances and just communication limits set by the speed of light; ergo, if some colony falls prey to a dictatorship it is unlikely to spread easily across all of humanity
- We have lots of questions about the universe which may be answered if we travel it. And, when scientific discoveries are made they often have applications outside their initial field.
- We have lots of questions about biology that living in novel environments would teach us (also lots of other scientific fields too of course)
- Forming colonies will force many small groups of people to work collectively, causing those colonies to form a sense of community—something that is lacking in humanity presently
- Isolation caused by communication limits will be scary but also will decrease our access to 24/7 terrible non-local news (inhibiting our ability to doomscroll) which will likely have a positive impact on everyone’s mental health (…maybe not on earth but in the colonies at least)
- Exploration becoming a possibility will also likely make people happier just by showing that humanity has a future. Also, knowing that there are places you can go to escape society all together is quite a freeing thought for some
- Last but not least WE GET TO GO TO SPACE!
right, all eggs one basket? sure Jan.
we know is a sure bet on where we can prosper if we keep it healthy,
haha dude, error #1. we can do everything right and still be toast if all our eggs are in this one fucking basket. the universe is a big place and the earth is a very small, vulnerable one.
No truly cataclysmic events occurred in the last millions of years, so we’re probably safe enough.
Fucking up the planet in an anthropogenic way is clearly a bigger concern, and launching giant stuff into space contributes to that.
In other words, maybe later it could be worth it, but only if we solve the problems right here. Otherwise, we won’t make it there, either.
With our current understanding, the universe is a vulnerable place. Heat death of the universe may be a thing that’s inescapable.
may or may not be. i’ve had long discussions about that with people. i struggle to get a clear answer from people. everybody gives evasive answers.
Evasive answers like “we really can’t know what will happen in billions of years”? xD
That would solve the Fermi paradox too. Smart species stayed on their home planet, dumb ones tried to leave it. While trying, they ruined their best chance of survival. While in space, they found out that survival out there is nearly impossible without a planet. That’s why we don’t hear from them.
no. idk what makes you think that it would be an “either or” situation.
Well, in a few million years the sun will burn out, and we won’t have any choice but to migrate.
*billion
Not quite an immediate concern tho. Maybe for aliens, too?
what makes you think that waiting makes spaceflight easier?
good ending
You are very young, aren’t you? I’m guessing 14-17?
