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Cake day: 2023年12月20日

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  • Numbers don’t even seem to add up, or something strongly changed between 2007 and 2010.

    Also, you’re either a troll or a very incompetent researcher. You should absolutely never ever rely on LLMs to serve you any factual data. LLMs are highly prone to hallucinations.

    Here’s an actual paper on the issue: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167268123001713

    Generally, the migrant crime rate increased in 2008-2014, but then decreased throughout 2015-2019. In total, the change averages to about zero.

    As per reasoning, two primary forces are demonstrated: on one hand, poorer material conditions, and on the other, the fear of being deported. In 2015-2019, during refugee crisis, being sent back could mean essential death sentence, which shifted the balance. All of this is to say that we should improve material conditions for migrants if we want the crime rates among them to drop further. Instead, it is currently done under threats of deportation.

    The only thing left unanswered for me is sexual violence. But in Germany, the difference between natives and locals is not as big as to justify mass measures against an entirety of migrant population.



  • I’mma be honest, I didn’t dig statistics for Germany, but I live in Russia where the same migrant hysteria is rampant rn, and saw some numbers from there.

    On average, immigrants in Russia commit less crimes per person than native population. The areas in which there are objectively more crimes are migration laws (obviously) and sexual offences. Numbers in other categories are higher by native Russians. And mind you, our migrants come from underdeveloped primarily Muslim countries, too.

    With that said, do you have data on the share of crimes committed by native German population and immigrants? Pure numbers mean little without context.





  • I’d argue that, while privacy comes at a cost to society, it’s an essential building block of democracy.

    Unfortunately, we cannot uncover messages of child abusers without also helping uncover messages of opposition leaders, for example.

    Also, as our lives move more and more digital, basic expectation of personal privacy online becomes part of comfortable digital living. We all have things we don’t want a random dude in the uniform to see, even if there’s nothing criminal in there at all.

    That said, total digital surveillance is probably gonna cost us more than digital privacy, but government has a lot to gain from it, which is, to my mind, why we have this unpopular thing pushed so hard in the first place. Public is generally very vocal about NOT wanting this.