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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, and a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, said Moscow would be forced to use “more powerful and destructive weapons” against Ukraine if Kyiv started firing long-range Western missiles at Russia.

    Hey Vyacheslav, what weapons besides nuclear (and maybe biological) weapons does russia have that it hasn’t used against Ukraine already? Do you think if you use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine that that ends the war? Do you think the rest of the world will just say “welp, I guess russia used a nuke, better let them have Ukraine now”. Not even close.


  • No… it’s pretty easy

    Look into some history of India, as a sovereign nation, and how they were treated by the West for most of the 20th century. The Soviet Union was a much needed friend to India when the rest of the West turned their back after the British were kicked out. I don’t blame India for some of the continued engagement with russia. However, Ukraine was also part of the nation (Soviet Union) that helped India, and I’m not seeing weigh positively for Ukraine. I say this as an American. The West (including the USA) has done some pretty messed up stuff to other nations in the 20th century.




  • I got an answer from the article. Essentially this guy was a known critic of the government already having spent time in prison for very direct criticisms. So he posted a dot. A completely benign post and then the following occurred:

    “[he] posted a single dot in reply to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tweet, and that comment was liked far more than Khamenei’s original tweet”

    …and…

    “Iran watchers say the leadership has felt insecure about the high level of dissent in the country for a while”

    So a known critic did the thing you do to your old sibling where you put your finger an inch away from them and say “What? I’m not touching you. I’m not touching you!” and then your sibling is tired of your shit and smacks you very hard.










  • I think anything short of a ballistic missile against a “near peer” IS outdated tech at this point,

    I don’t think that would be an opinion shared by many. Short range ballistic missiles are exactly that. Short range aka “tactical”. One example of an operational US tactical ballistic missiles are ATACMS. These have a maximum range of about 300km. To get anything longer range that is a ballistic missile you go into “strategic” ballistic missiles. The problem with these is we use these for nuclear strikes. If you launch one of these, every country around the world will assume its nuclear armed and could respond in kind. There is no geopolitical concept of “Trust me bro, its just a conventional warhead”.

    The US loves its cruise missiles. Think about how extensively the Tomahawk cruise missile has been used over the last 2 decades.

    but doing rough napkin math gives about an hour from launch to impact. I still suspect the f-16s were more about anti-drone operations but, reasonable.

    Here’s the results of the latest missile attack on Ukraine from a couple of days ago:

    • 3 Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” aeroballistic missiles from the airspace of the Ryazan and Lipetsk regions - Russian Federation;
    • 6 ballistic missiles “Iskander-M” /KN -23 from the Kursk, Voronezh regions - Russian Federation. and from Crimea;
    • 77 Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS aircraft from the airspace of the Volgograd region and the Caspian Sea region;
    • 28 Kalibr cruise missiles from surface/underwater carriers in the eastern part of the Black Sea;
    • 3 Kh-22 cruise missiles from the airspace of the Voronezh region. - Russian Federation;
    • 10 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air missiles from Su-57, Su-34 aircraft from the airspace of the Belgorod region. and from the Mariupol district;
    • 109 strike UAVs “Shahed-131/136” - launch areas of Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kursk, Yeisk - Russian Federation, Chauda - Crimea.

    Of those 236 weapons launched by russia, only 6 were ballistic missiles). 109 were prop driven UAV (drone). That leaves a whole bunch of cruise missiles and 3 hypersonic missiles.


  • My understanding is that anything newer than a V2 rocket is just too fast for a jet pilot to actively engage.

    Not quite. The part you’re referring to with V2 is ballistic missiles, specifically in their terminal (falling on target) stage. It is very hard and expensive, but not impossible, to counter these. However, only a fraction of what russia is shooting at Ukraine is ballistic missiles. Most are cruise missiles (think mini jet airplanes with wings and jet engines that fly at jet airplane speeds). These can be shot down by other jets or land based missiles pretty easily if there are defenses in place. Lastly is the Shehed drones (think mini civilian propeller plane). These are very slow flying and be shot down by land based guns, other propeller planes with guns, or even helicopters with guns. Russia is also shooting a small handful of hypersonic missiles. These are crazy fast flying from beginning to end of their flight. They’re really expensive and russia doesn’t have many of these.

    That is why the “meta” is countermeasures and computerized systems (e.g. patriot missiles) where the human involvement is to approve launch for liability/Geneva Convention purposes.

    I think human operators are more to prevent shooting down non-combatant aircraft like commercial airline and civilian planes neither of which are broadcasting Friend or Foe signals to air defense operators.





  • So you’re recognizing that a bad command execution can exist in CDN or cloud provider, but where is your recognition of the tens of millions off bad command executions that happen in small IT shops every month?

    I looks like you’re ignoring the practical realities that companies rarely ever:

    • hire enough support staff
    • hire enough skilled staff
    • invest in enough redundant infrastructure to survive hardware or connectivity failures
    • design applications with resiliency
    • have high enough rigor for audit, safe change control, rollback
    • shield the operations stupid decisions leads impose because business goals are more important that IT safety

    All of these things lead to system impacts and downtime that can only come from running your own datacenters.

    The cloud isn’t perfect, but for lots and lots of companies its a much better and cheaper option than “rolling your own”.