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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • UAE has asked the US for emergency loans/swaps… if the war lasts longer. Prospects are somewhere between “Certain that they are begging to completely surrender for no concessions” and “ending the civilization any day now”. If the latter path is chosen, Iran can force GCC to beg US withdrawal by hitting all desalination plants that provide 90% of their water (other 10% is in bottles on ships through SoH)

    The most likely outcome is that the US just leaves without paying Iran compensation for peace. They would be unlikely to help restore GCC bases or do much reconstruction there without having an illusion of safety. Rest of the world (China mostly) will manage reopening SoH, rebuilding the area, and guaranteeing peace. As part of UAE’s request, was the threat that it would be forced to sell oil in CNY.










  • This reduces flow of oil out, and should let Iran take a bigger toll from GCC ports that are still too close to US/Israel. The seeds of an outcome is for world to stop asking US to negotiate with Iran, and negotiate themselves. There is question that if world agrees with Iran to open straight does US do the same? But this has to be handled with a deal with Iran first, then convince US.

    World is better off economically with 20m barrels (+ all other stuff from region) per day at $60/bbl than 0-1m at $150/bbl

    Trump/US was remarkably polite about negotiations, suggesting that everything except nuclear was agreed to. GCC countries are unlikely to ever have their US bases rebuilt, with US peace or not with Iran. GCC countries that agree to expel US would have much better toll rate. The easy formula to reopen straight is pay the US’s reparations to Iran as a monthly toll prepayment.

    Iran’s move to open straights quickly and end the war is destruction of neighbours desalination. Make them forced to rely on humanitarian aid, and to get on Iran’s good side. Risks regime change for poor attitudes.


  • Why would the US allow Iran to continue to sell oil while Iran is destroying other ships.

    To keep oil prices from rising too high, with whole countries running dry. While GOP will portray it as 100% democrats fault, west coast runs out of jet fuel in a week or so.

    Something Iran can do to force GCC to demand an end to war within 10 days is to destroy all desalination infrastructure

    No one wants Iran to be able to charge for access to the Strait and this would put pressure on the to find a more agreeable end to the conflict.

    It is a legal response to an illegal war. Reparations paid to Iran (normally by US) that US adoring colonies can pay instead would satisfy Iran’s revenue generation/compensation rationale.



  • China is both extremely well supplied with Oil, and aggressively weaning itself off of oil. It’s everyone else in Asia who are now pressured to get closer to China from this. Asia cutting US off from Chips, and selling to China instead, until US leaves the Gulf region, is the most effective action. Diplomatically, asserting that the US/Israel illegal war is the primary source of fuel and helium shortages needed to make chips, industry needs to focus on serving friendly country needs first.


  • In Hegseth’s voice… Why can’t you idiots understand how clear our, sorry I mean our great President’s, mission has always been. We needed to start this excursion, because Iran was about to extort the world through a blockade. It’s extortion when Iran does it. We are liberating the world when we extort, uhm … uhm… liberate them from Iranian extortion. To pre-empt some of the news you will hear later this week. Iran was already threatening the region with opening Trump branded golf courses on its soil, and so America needed to make sure our friends in the region did so before hand. Radical left wing media not understanding that we won the war because 10 more Trump golf courses are opening in Gulf and 0 in Iran, just don’t understand that freedom isn’t free.





  • The Church started/was named by a global empire. By the time of Constantine, who would preside over Church commandment debates from the Pope’s throne, Jesus’s peace/humanism was erased from the church in favour of old testament’s divine right of emperor to kill and steal. Heresy laws applied to interpreting bible as humanist Jesus instead of the blessing of warmongering.

    Pope really needs to undo the pre dark ages warmongering changes to Christianity. Jesus was a reformer. Yahweh a demon son that usurped his father El. Jesus’s father god was El not Yahweh.