Profile pic is from Jason Box, depicting a projection of Arctic warming to the year 2100 based on current trends.

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Cake day: March 3rd, 2024

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  • 100% is not realistic physically. You should phrase the question as a world where everything that’s possible to be recycled is recycled, and where it isn’t we go back to materials that are naturally recycled or reusable. Basically a world where plastics and other materials that are one-time use are banned. It’s a great topic, as we don’t remotely realize how much we throw away. The scale is huge. The change in what is affordable or possible would be huge too.

    We could do a lot better, and it would be impactful. Some things have to be disposable in our modern world though, at least with current technology. Just medical use alone is a big example.





  • The first Earth Day was in 1970. It might have been too late even back then to avoid any consequences because nature had been absorbing what we had already done for a long time, but it sure would have helped to slam on the brakes. We should absolutely keep trying to get those brakes pressed, but it’s debatable if we’re already over the cliff.

    You’re not a doomer if you’re seeing all the evidence and putting it together. You’re a realist. The label “doomer” is just reactionary from those who want to keep the status quo and don’t like people pointing out reality.



  • But since we’re talking about early life forming (actually chemical replicators, much simpler than a virus) let’s use the card shuffling odds, but decks of cards are being shuffled in billions or trillions of places on early Earth every second for millions of years. Even a very low odds of finding a working sequence of molecules will be found geologically quickly given the amount of times done over area and time. We’re pretty sure now that life began very soon once the Earth cooled down enough to allow it. What took much longer was the more complex forms of life like viruses and single cells, then even longer for multicellular.


  • I haven’t had to link this in a long time. Here is the link to the relevant FAQ topic about abiogenesis from the talk.origins Usenet compilation. If you’re honestly curious about the real statistics, that’s a start. The cited works are obviously old but the science hasn’t changed, if anything we’ve learned more.

    Usually the strawman against abiogenesis is that a simple bacterium or virus can’t just appear from nowhere, which of course is true but isn’t what the science of the beginnings of life even remotely suggests. The opposite is actually true, in a world where there are no higher life forms to compete with we’d probably see all sorts of complex combinations of chemicals that eventually run across a replication process. This is the answer to OP’s question, once higher life develops, the basic chemical replicators can’t compete anymore. Or get absorbed into a symbiosis, as what seems to be the case with the mitochondria.

    With the right conditions on other worlds (not necessarily only what Earth was like) simple life forms may be very common. We certainly now know just from recent sampling that there are planets everywhere.








  • I can still have back in college dreams where I’ve missed class or don’t have an assignment. I obviously got scarred with my real experiences, as when I wake up I find it ridiculous to still have such anxiety to try and fix what was broken so long ago. It doesn’t help that they usually are combined with the regular impediment of my bad dreams of not being able to move well, just walking is like being in quicksand.

    The weirdest dream I’ve had in my adult life that still bugs me was some liminal horror from watching too many Backroom type videos. I can’t recall the setup or anything, all I can remember is that I was looking up at the sky and the sky was becoming not darker but felt like it was closing in and projecting an oppressive feeling, and there was this ominous low level sound that was paralizing me. Nothing appeared, nothing happened (except I woke suddenly), but that hopeless feeling was terrible.