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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • The CEO was basically a nobody. A rich nobody, certainly, but a nobody. I didn’t know of his existence before he was killed, and I’m sure I’m in the same group as a majority of Americans and the rest of the world. Likewise, I don’t know how who replaced him. So why would there be division? You’ll get some objective, impersonal “He was a father and husband, this is terrible,” and some objective, somewhat more emotional “He made his money by refusing sick people care,” but there isn’t a lot of arguing because even though it was very real, it’s still in the realm of the hypothetical for most people. Even kids killed in a school half a world away is more real, and more emotional, for most people because they have kids, will have kids, or were a kid in a situation not too dissimilar, and it could have been them if not for their different circumstances.



  • Similar for me. In the moment, talking about dying doesn’t feel like a joke. After you’ve seen enough and come out the other side, death doesn’t feel significant or threatening enough to have to worry about joking about. I feel like those who joke about killing themselves have either never felt like doing it or have confronted it and moved on.

    And suicide jokes are probably best kept for groups where you know where people are. A lot of people mask being suicidal by joking around and putting a lot of work into being upbeat, often surprising those who only know them superficially when they commit suicide.










  • Life expectancy at 25 hasn’t changed dramatically in the last 2000 years, less than 10 years in most parts of the world. Life expectancy at birth has improved dramatically, and that isn’t doing much for me, Putin, or Xi at this point. Certainly, the improved healthcare afforded to Putin and Xi is going to help their life expectancy more than the average. All that said, a lot of improvements have happened in the last couple centuries, mostly based on our knowledge. Sure, exponential growth isn’t going to happen forever, not even in gaining knowledge, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen in biology for the next century. If it does, extending life expectancy at birth to 150 could be quite conservative.




  • I wasn’t setting an upper limit. There is good evidence we are closing in on some of the causes of the symptoms of aging, as well as gaining evidence that dealing with the symptoms may reduce the effects of aging. If we only have those basic tools in the next 100 years, I could see lifespans being pushed to 150 to 200 for the typical person. If we can also deal with the lesser regenerative capability of the brain, I could see people living for centuries. As you said in other comments, there are a lot of interconnected pieces, and just fixing one or some of them won’t be as useful as fixing all of them, which really takes transplants off the table as a general solution, but also means we may see limited increases in life span rather than getting past the tipping point of life extension research outpacing the gain it gives you, eg., extending lifespans more than one year per year.