I find that generally we tend to see tech progress in China outpace predictions. For example, nobody expected China to start producing 7 and 5nm chips by now, nobody thought Huawei clusters would be able to compete with Nvidia, etc. Of course, doing new things is always tricky, and 2-5 years certainly sounds plausible to me.
They’re producing these 7 nm and 5 nm chips on ASML machines they bought or smuggled into the country. The problem is they can’t fix them on warranty if they break and they can’t figure out how to reverse engineer them yet. I’m hopefully but I’m realistic.
I find that generally we tend to see tech progress in China outpace predictions. For example, nobody expected China to start producing 7 and 5nm chips by now, nobody thought Huawei clusters would be able to compete with Nvidia, etc. Of course, doing new things is always tricky, and 2-5 years certainly sounds plausible to me.
They’re producing these 7 nm and 5 nm chips on ASML machines they bought or smuggled into the country. The problem is they can’t fix them on warranty if they break and they can’t figure out how to reverse engineer them yet. I’m hopefully but I’m realistic.