It is worth noting that China is supplying arms to both sides of the conflict.

This I believe is an intended effect of Chinese government’s shift away from depending on housing investment as primary factor in driving growth - to bring home affordability back as home ownership has become a deterrent to marriages and child-rearing, both in severe decline and the biggest long term strategic threat to China.

There has been Chinese-sponsored (or coerced) peace talks in Yunan in the past. There were truces that came out of them, only for fighting to break out months later with both sides accusing the other of breaking the terms of truce. With every disparate guerilla force gaining momentum and growing more powerful, there is no end in sight. Not for the next 50 years.

As a long time observer of Myanmar’s civil war, I need to clarify the somewhat misleading nature of this article. The journalist makes it appear as if RSO and the military Junta have reached some sort of a “truce”. This is further from the truth. Rohingya guerillas have had little to no presence in Burma since the military’s operations in 2017 and subsequent years marked by the infamous massacre of over 100 Rohingya villagers in August 2017. Due to the emergence of Arakan Army (AA) as a powerful guerilla force in Burma since the 2021 coup (Arakan are the native tibeto-burman people of the state of Arakan who are predominantly buddhist), and in a twist of irony, the military junta has been arming and training Rohingya guerillas as a counter to the threat from AA. Currently, AA has control of most of the state of Arakan with the exception of major cities and a Chinese-owned deep sea port.

China is doing its best to antagonize all of its neighbors.

Guerillas the Chinese helped founded, have supported and provided arms to have become more successful than they wanted. This development clearly confirms that Chinese are worried the Junta will collapse and Burma will fall into chaos, without a central authority but under disparate armed groups with constantly shifting territories due to rivalries amongst them. They need a central government in control of the country whom they can manipulate in order to implement their strategic interests in and through Burma. It seems their support for guerilla groups have been too successful and the situation is spinning out of their grasp.

First, we saw China appeal for regional unity in helping bring about stability in Burma 12 days ago, a break from its usual go-alone stance. Now they are blocking border trade that guerillas partially depend on for their revenue to bend them to Chinese will. The Chinese still have more leverage that they haven’t used yet of course. And it is interesting they are also pressuring the Wa who are not active participants in the civil war, but possesses the largest army amongst the guerillas with 30,000 soldiers (bigger than Sweden, Hungary or Portugal).