Taiwan’s military can respond rapidly to any sudden Chinese attack with all units able to operate under a decentralised mode of command without awaiting orders from above, Taipei’s defence ministry said in a report to lawmakers.
Democratically-governed Taiwan, which Beijing views as its own territory, has repeatedly warned that China could try to suddenly shift its regular drills into active combat mode to catch Taiwan and its international supporters off guard.
China’s military operates around Taiwan on an almost daily basis, in what Taipei says is part of a “grey zone” harassment and pressure campaign that stops short of actual combat but is designed to wear out Taiwan’s armed forces by putting them constantly on alert.
2.8 million human beings will never attempt an amphibious landing. Given the nature of landing craft, maybe 1000 craft per day, a team of 10 soldiers on each, so 10 000 soldiers per day. But for how long?
In reality, I suspect, if it happens even a few years into future - it will be robot vs. robot.
The outcome will be determined by the ratio of attacking / defending drones and robots maintaining a control link and achieving objectives.
Likely architecture: regardless whether the objective is Taiwan or a Chinese fleet or port - a submerged relay station will travel with fiber link trailing behind. Around the relay station, using short range comms - a swarm of sea drones (some on surface, some torpedos or mines), some transporting air drones to be launched in proximity of the target. Opponents will try to kill each others’s relay station, EMP the swarm, air-drop a swarm of interceptor drones on them, do various other tricks.
In the air, most likely: a large stealthy cargo drone dropping a large swarm of cheap, autonomous strike drones, and another similar cargo drone countering it with a swarm of air-dropped interceptors.
I can’t predict the outcome. The kind of war that China and Taiwan would fight has not been fought before, but it will 100% likely build on what is being done in Ukraine.
Large ships and stationary infastructure likely cannot be defended, in neither country.