When Donald Trump has been asked about the reason he’s pressuring Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to step down and threatening military action against the country, he consistently blames the South American leader for two things: drugs and migrants.

As the Trump administration continues its strikes on alleged drug vessels at sea, the president has threatened that attacks against drug cartels on land in Venezuela would begin “very soon.” Experts who have modeled what would happen if Trump went ahead with even limited strikes warn Venezuela could see mass displacement and a new refugee surge like the 2017 crisis Trump blames on Maduro that led to thousands of Venezuelans moving to the US.

A Niskanen Center study released last month modeling refugee movements based on different types of US military action found that strikes could spur 1.7 million to 3 million additional people to flee Venezuela within just a few years if the attacks triggered a brief internal conflict.