The war against Ukraine has hit ordinary Russians hard, and the deteriorating situation is likely to inflame tensions, says Guardian foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdall

People in Britain who think they are governed by fools should take a closer look at the Russian and US presidents. Vladimir Putin is systematically ruining his country. His war of choice in Ukraine is an economic, financial, geopolitical and human calamity for Russia that worsens by the day. For his own murky reasons, Donald Trump, another national menace, offered him a lifeline last week. Yet Putin spurned it. These two fools deserve each other.

On the table in Moscow was a “peace” deal that, broadly speaking, rewarded Russia’s aggression by handing over large chunks of Ukrainian land, compromised Kyiv’s independence and weakened its defences against any future attack. The Trump deal, if forced through, would have split the US and Europe; ruptured Nato, perhaps fatally; reprieved Russia’s pariah economy; and probably toppled Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government.

These are key Russian war aims. But Putin, suffering from neo-imperial fantasies and legacy issues, said “no”. He reckons he can get it all, and more, by fighting on. He has persuaded the idiot Trump that Russia’s victory is inevitable – and that scheming Europeans are the real warmongers. Yet his premise is fundamentally flawed. Hard facts confound him. Almost four years on, he’s still trapped in Donbas mud and ice. And at home, things fall apart.

  • BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.todayEnglish
    32·
    19 hours ago

    the war has “dramatically improved” the incomes of 20% of Russians, it is hugely socially divisive. “For the bulk of Russians, real incomes have fallen by 16% to 42%,”

    Like most wars, this is why they tend to go on so long - because those that are making the most money from the war, reinvest some of it to keep the war going as long as possible. After all, they aren’t paying the price in money or blood, they just collect the spoils.

    Putin’s readiness to risk the lives and wellbeing of ordinary Russians is only too evident, symbolised by the cynical signing-up fees and death benefits paid to infantry volunteers from poor rural areas – whose average frontline life expectancy is 12 days.

    This is what will eventually end the war - they will simply run out of draftees, or the people will finally get sick of sacrificing their sons to advance corruption, and revolt, although that could be tough with any fighting-age men off getting slaughtered less than two weeks after joining. We may see something crazy like a Mother’s Rebellion, with a million mothers marching on the Kremlin and taking it over. It would be pretty tough to get Russian soldiers to fire on their own mothers.

    • northernlights@lemmy.todayEnglish
      151·
      18 hours ago

      It would be pretty tough to get Russian soldiers to fire on their own mothers.

      I wouldn’t hold my breath. Those who would refuse to fire would get shot. Now they may not try very hard to aim well, but still.

    • NimaMag@lemmy.mlEnglish
      43·
      13 hours ago

      We may see something crazy like a Mother’s Rebellion, with a million mothers marching on the Kremlin and taking it over.

      Thankfully, Putin has already aimed to prevent this since Second Chechnya by refusing to use Conscripts exactly for this reason.

      Even the Ukrainians admitted that the Russians have refused to send conscripts into Ukraine.

      A Mother’s Rebellion is far more likely to occur in Ukraine due to Busification.