People in Britain who think they are governed by fools should take a closer look at the Russian and US presidents. Vladimir Putin is systematically ruining his country. His war of choice in Ukraine is an economic, financial, geopolitical and human calamity for Russia that worsens by the day. For his own murky reasons, Donald Trump, another national menace, offered him a lifeline last week. Yet Putin spurned it. These two fools deserve each other.
On the table in Moscow was a “peace” deal that, broadly speaking, rewarded Russia’s aggression by handing over large chunks of Ukrainian land, compromised Kyiv’s independence and weakened its defences against any future attack. The Trump deal, if forced through, would have split the US and Europe; ruptured Nato, perhaps fatally; reprieved Russia’s pariah economy; and probably toppled Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government.
These are key Russian war aims. But Putin, suffering from neo-imperial fantasies and legacy issues, said “no”. He reckons he can get it all, and more, by fighting on. He has persuaded the idiot Trump that Russia’s victory is inevitable – and that scheming Europeans are the real warmongers. Yet his premise is fundamentally flawed. Hard facts confound him. Almost four years on, he’s still trapped in Donbas mud and ice. And at home, things fall apart.
I think you’re being abrasive about it, but are making a decent point.
Yes, lots of clickbait exaggerated Russia’s fragility. Some actual analysts underestimated certain aspects of Russia.
And Russia won many geopolitical dice rolls:
And so on.
There are some nasty, ambitious figures in Russian politics apparently “reigned in” by Putin now. If he’s deposed… what happens? Do we get a Russia fractured by warlords armed with Soviet warheads? I’d much rather see it vassalized by China or something.
And yeah, at the end of the day this is the physically largest country on Earth, backed by the most populous, invading a tiny one. Endless war is utterly catastrophic for the Russian people, but (if the US basically withdraws from NATO and Europe keeps being Europe), they are on an extremely slow track to grind down Ukraine and claim the ashes :(
Anyway, you should read ISW’s reports on the war:
https://www.understandingwar.org/
They have a quite grounded take. And from the even before the war started (when forces massed on the border), they’ve been warning that Russia has the political power to grind on. They tried to warn policymakers about the clickbait.