People in Britain who think they are governed by fools should take a closer look at the Russian and US presidents. Vladimir Putin is systematically ruining his country. His war of choice in Ukraine is an economic, financial, geopolitical and human calamity for Russia that worsens by the day. For his own murky reasons, Donald Trump, another national menace, offered him a lifeline last week. Yet Putin spurned it. These two fools deserve each other.
On the table in Moscow was a “peace” deal that, broadly speaking, rewarded Russia’s aggression by handing over large chunks of Ukrainian land, compromised Kyiv’s independence and weakened its defences against any future attack. The Trump deal, if forced through, would have split the US and Europe; ruptured Nato, perhaps fatally; reprieved Russia’s pariah economy; and probably toppled Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government.
These are key Russian war aims. But Putin, suffering from neo-imperial fantasies and legacy issues, said “no”. He reckons he can get it all, and more, by fighting on. He has persuaded the idiot Trump that Russia’s victory is inevitable – and that scheming Europeans are the real warmongers. Yet his premise is fundamentally flawed. Hard facts confound him. Almost four years on, he’s still trapped in Donbas mud and ice. And at home, things fall apart.
They were already importing arillery shells, and they are out of Soviet reserves.
They won’t collapse, but they will drift even more into the Chinese sphere of influence, while they have already lost their own.
Point is, the West and China can keep Ukrainians and Russians killing each other as long as they don’t stop funding either side, which will then collapse pretty much immediately.
In any case, Russia is pretty much done as a world power, and the only two questions is whether the US and the EU will become independent world players after Trump, and when the killing will actually stop.
It’s a purely political question, because both China and the EU can keep this up forever.
If i was Xi I’d be invading Eastern Russia and annexing Siberia/Kamchatka/Vladivostok and seizing the oil reserves.
Why invade when they can colonise without invasion?
There is no point doing that as long as the Belt and Road takes over old Russian aligned states’ infrastructure and the kids of the Moscow elite start learning Mandarin, both of which is happening.
I expect when climate change melts the permafrost, the companies exploiting Siberia’s riches will be all Chinese. If Russia is luckier than most, they will at least employ Russians for the more menial jobs. As long as they can speak fluent Mandarin.
China wisely prefer s economic domination rather than military. And Russia’s still got nukes.
I don’t think it’s this simple. Russia is primarily relying on China as a buyer for its hydrocarbons. It has a large and developed military industrial complex. Ukraine has had to bootstrap its arms industry since the war started. Russia also imports artillery from North Korea. Europe has historically had a dearth of war material and industry, so Ukraine can’t just order a million shells from Germany or something, although maybe this is where we’re headed. Just because we don’t want Russia to win doesn’t mean they don’t have major military and economic advantages. Ukraine hasn’t gained any territory since the Kursk offensive, which was short lived, and they lose ground slowly every day. While I agree that this can go on indefinitely, I don’t think the sides are evenly matched.